TASAM | 8th Turkey - Gulf Defense And Security Forum Final Declarati...

The 8th Turkey - Gulf Defense and Security Forum, held under the main theme “Red Apples for Security Partnership,“ was organized by the TASAM National Defense and Security Institute as a co-event of the 10th Istanbul Security Conference on November 22, 2024, at Wish More Hotel Istanbul. The Forum hosted speakers and protocol participants from various countries and regions, as well as diverse fields and sectors. Diplomatic representatives and delegations from Gulf countries were also present. Local and international experts, academics, and diplomats delivered speeches and presentations at the Forum. Relevant authorities from Turkey and the Gulf were represented, and all sessions were institutionally followed.

The Forum addressed the following critical topics for the present and future of Turkey, Gulf countries, and the region: “New Red Apples in the Turkish-Arab Security Ecosystem“, “Safe Fertile Crescent and Balance Partnership“, “The Impact of the Iran-Syria Alliance on Regional and Global Security Balances“, “New Threats and Opportunities in the Ecosystem: Cybersecurity, Food Security, Reproductive-Consumption Security“, “Defense Indugultry: Land, Sea, Air, Space, Police, Gendarmerie, Intelligence, Strategic Sectors“, “Collaboration in the Security and Defense Ecosystem of the Future“, “The Diplomatic and Economic Influence of Iran and Syria in the Region: A Strategic Assessment“.

The following findings and recommendations presented at the Forum have been decided to be brought to the attention of all relevant authorities and the public:

American hegemony continues to shape the world order, despite perceptions of its recent decline. The European Union, considered a competitor to American hegemony, has lost its capacity to be an alternative. The Russia-Ukraine war has been an experience that revitalized Europe. To balance this hegemony, it is necessary to examine the methods used by its adversaries. Russia has prioritized its nuclear power in this context.

Turkey, with its strong secular population, establishes significant connections with the West, while its predominantly Muslim population facilitates strong ties with the Islamic world. Moreover, the legacy of the Turkish nation enables deep ties with Central Asia. These connections constitute Turkey’s strength in the diplomatic arena.

Between the invasion of Iraq and 2017, Turkey had to contend with terrorism and crises. However, diplomatic initiatives gained momentum after that year. It has been observed that strategic cooperation with Iraq has significantly increased since then, leading to the Development Road Project.

After observing in 2005 that its economy was entirely dependent on oil, Iraq developed the Development Road Project to reduce this dependency. Negotiations for this project with South Korean companies began in 2010. However, instability sources such as the Arab Spring that emerged afterward overshadowed this plan. Initially, the goal was to route the road through Iran, bypassing Turkey. However, Iraq decided to move the project to Turkey due to Iran's instability and insecurity in relations with the West.

In 2020, with the elimination of ISIS, the construction of a major port operation began. The project is expected to be completed between 2028 and 2030. Once the port is completed, there will be no obstacles to using the Development Road. Additionally, this port is so extensive and large that it will rank among the world's top 10 largest ports. This project is also significant as a major alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Potential risks include the presence of terrorist organizations such as ISIS, DAESH, and PKK, as well as ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The universal importance of water for everyone, as well as its geopolitical and geographical significance for Turkey, has been highlighted. For example, it has been shown that producing one hamburger requires 4,000 liters of water. Such examples can be significantly expanded. this port's scale and capacity are expected to place it among the world's 10 largest ports.

It has been specifically stated that Israel aims to realize its vision of a great state by linking the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.

Gulf countries have been observed to form networks with non-regional countries. China's recent rise in soft power, emphasizing economic interests, is gaining ground in the region, reducing U.S. influence. Consequently, the U.S. is attempting to reassert its stronger influence in the region and counter China's rise. The U.S. is expected to renew its policies and not withdraw to avoid losing its influence in the region. These policies indicate a growing negativity in U.S. actions.

A new balance has emerged among the Gulf countries. After the Arab Spring, Turkey has had to act with a balance-oriented approach toward the Gulf countries. It can be said that Turkey has only recently started to implement its own balance policy in foreign relations with the Gulf countries following divisions that occurred after October 7.

Saudi Arabia has alleviated and shelved its tensions with Iran through the Abraham Accords. For the Gulf countries, the Abraham Accords are also quite significant in this regard, as they have normalized relations with Israel through these agreements.

Ensuring the security of critical minerals, which are crucial in the industrial sector, advanced technology, and energy production, plays a vital role in preserving economic and political independence. Despite the vast critical mineral reserves possessed by Turkish states, the lack of sufficient infrastructure to process and convert these resources into technology fosters dependency on external sources and increases the influence of major powers in the region. Utilizing critical minerals effectively not only enhances the benefits derived from resources but also fosters regional solidarity and cooperation. The multi-polar world system has acquired a techno-polar character due to technological developments. This has become a criterion for reestablishing power balances between strong and medium-power states globally. By enhancing cooperation in technological developments, Turkey and Gulf countries could play a crucial role in this balance.

During the Arab Spring movements, Turkey often found itself at odds with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, in later periods, Turkey adopted cooperative and economic dependency-based relations instead of ideological competition. Although policies based on the win-win principle have been adopted, it can be observed that a new balance has emerged due to differing stances of the parties during ceasefire negotiations in the post-October 7, 2023 period.

The U.S. and coalition forces' occupation of Iraq brought about various economic, military, and political issues. Since 2003, successive governments in Iraq have considered developing strategic projects as solutions to reduce the economy's reliance on oil. The Grand Fao Port Project, which emerged with this purpose, is expected to contribute significantly to Iraq's national income by reducing oil dependency by 40% to 60%. Although initial steps for the project's construction were taken in 2010, various political, economic, and terror-related issues hindered its progress. Therefore, the project underwent a replanning phase in 2020, and the first phase is estimated to be completed in 2025. The Grand Fao Port connects Gulf countries to Europe via Iraq and Turkey, and it is anticipated to provide significant contributions to both Iraq and the world in terms of global trade and mutual interests.

Within the framework of the "Rising Asia" literature, Turkey's "threshold position" between East and West has also been addressed in the context of ontological security discussions. While conducting this analysis, transformations in the techno-political field have been examined through a comparative qualitative analysis on global, regional, and local levels.

Right after the G-20 Summit held in New Delhi on September 15, 2023, the attacks by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel's subsequent operations in Gaza need to be analyzed in connection with the so-called "Wars of Economic Corridors." This study focuses on the global geo-economic competition represented by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) routes, particularly the geo-economic dimension between the U.S., Israel, and China. During the war period following October 7, Israel seems to have completely lost the option of choosing between the U.S. and China. The United Kingdom is assumed to not favor the India-led IMEC over the Belt and Road Initiative it supported approximately a decade ago. However, it can be evaluated that the U.S. persuaded or pressured the European Union to support the IMEC initiative after the Ukraine War, as part of its efforts to sever the geo-economic link between London and Beijing (BRI).

Regional and global initiatives are increasingly gaining importance. Regional projects focused on local needs and operational efficiency are often more effective than global initiatives shaped by the strategic interests of major powers. For example, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to promote global and regional economic cooperation, has faced challenges due to its asymmetrical structure where China acts as the supplier and the rest of the world as the consumer. These challenges have been exacerbated by regional instabilities, such as the Ukraine-Russia war. Similarly, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), supported by the U.S. to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia, raises questions about financial sustainability and security concerns, especially in light of Israel's ongoing policies and actions against the Palestinian people.

The Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, holds significant strategic importance in global projects due to its geographical position and natural resources. As an alternative to these global initiatives, the Turkey-Iraq Development Project proposes a trade corridor extending from East Asia to the Gulf, predominantly through Iraqi ports to Turkey and Europe. Based on historical precedents like the colonial-era India Route, this initiative stands out as a more locally-focused effort that could contribute to regional peace and prosperity while serving as a competitive regional alternative within the global power struggle.

November 22, 2024, Istanbul.