New Wars and Ontological Security

Opening Speech

I would like to specify that I am glad and honored to address you once again as a key speaker at the Istanbul Security Conference, which has made significant progress towards becoming a brand. The ninth Istanbul Security Conference is being held under the shadow of the Hamas -Israel conflict, in addition to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, and in a sad environment caused by Israel's lawless massacre....

I would like to specify that I am glad and honored to address you once again as a key speaker at the Istanbul Security Conference, which has made significant progress towards becoming a brand. The ninth Istanbul Security Conference is being held under the shadow of the Hamas -Israel conflict, in addition to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, and in a sad environment caused by Israel's lawless massacre.

TASAM, itself a brand, also organizes different co-events with this conference. In this respect, the design, planning and execution of the Conference requires meticulous work. This work was conducted by a small team under the leadership of TASAM President Mr. Süleyman Şensoy. I would like to thank them for their efforts.

First of all, I would like to draw your attention to a few issues that occurred in the past in November and which I think are important to remind.

1.0 Anniversary of the Foundation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

November 15, 1983 is the anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is a result of the negotiations regarding the political situation of the island following the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation. The structure of the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus, declared by the Turkish side on February 13, 1975, was built on the assumption that a federal solution would be found on the island. For this reason, it was stated in the founding declaration that the ultimate aim was to unite with the Greek Cypriot community within the framework of a two-region federation. For the same purpose, an agreement in principle was reached for the establishment of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation in Cyprus, in the meetings held by the President of the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus, Rauf Denktaş, with the Greek leader Makarios in 1977, and then with Kiprianu , who replaced him in 1979 . However, the Greek Cypriots did not fulfill the requirements of these two agreements and constantly opposed the two-part federation solution based on political equality and brought the issue to international platforms. They occlude the solution ways by applying to the United Nations and trying to make a regulation in which only Greek Cypriots would dominate the whole of Cyprus and trying to get the Turks to accept this through pressure.

Seeing that the door to federation was closed and the hopes for a solution disappeared, the Turkish side felt the need to transform its federated state structure into an independent and free state status. In an environment where there was no state order based on federation on the island and there was no hope of establishing such a state, the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus remained in a void and lost its meaning. For this reason, on 15 November 1983, the federated state status was abandoned and the independent, free Turkish Republic of Cyprus was declared.

I celebrate the 40th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which gained the right to statehood after going through very difficult processes, and I would like to emphasize that we must make intense efforts to ensure that this just cause is not forgotten, especially among the younger generations, and that our efforts must be increased for the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as a state. .

2.0 Meskhetian Turks

Another issue we should not forget this month is that it is the 79th anniversary of the deportation of Meskhetian Turks from their homeland on November 14, 1944. Ahıska, located on Georgia's border with Turkey, was left to Russia with the treaty signed after the 1828-1829 Ottoman-Russian War. The oppression and persecution of Meskhetian Turks during the Tsarist Russia period also continued during the Soviet Union (USSR). Especially during the Stalin period, these pressures increased and the leading intellectuals of the Meskhetian Turks were arrested and killed or exiled under various excuses. The surnames of the Turks were changed, and thousands of soldiers were stationed in Ahıska and its surroundings for "border protection". Meskhetian Turks who were not drafted into the military were conscripted due to the need for soldiers when World War II began, and
about 40 thousand Meskhetian Turks were sent to the front to fight the Germans.

Stalin, II. Even though they fought in the Russian army in World War II, he signed the exile decision for the Meskhetian Turks , just like he did for all other Turkish communities . Turks, whose number reached 86 thousand, were exiled from Ahıska to various parts of Central Asia.

This difficult journey of the Meskhetian Turks, who were placed on top of each other in wagons, lasted more than a month, and approximately 17 thousand Meskhetian Turks lost their lives due to hunger, cold and disease during the journey.

The Stalin administration gave the reason for the exile as "The Meskhetian Turks, all of whose men were on the front lines with the Russians, cooperated with the Nazis in World War II." With the dissolution of the Soviets, it was revealed that this claim was not true and the real purpose was to clean the Black Sea region from the Turks.

"The issue of Meskhetian Turks returning to their lands", which is at the top of the agenda with the dissolution of the USSR, has not been resolved despite years. The Georgian administration has still not taken concrete steps despite the law covering the return of Meskhetian Turks to their homeland, which was adopted in 2007.

Simizar Mehmetoğlu, an 81-year-old mother of 10 children who was exiled with her family when she was 4 years old, explained that they were hungry, thirsty, and naked in exile.

"What color was my father? Was he big or small, beautiful or ugly? I don't know. He doesn't have anything on his feet or body. We dressed everything up. I worked for a pittance in Uzbekistan for 6 years. We swept their doors and carried grass to their animals. I helped my mother and We mowed grass. I drank muddy water. I got stones in my kidneys.

My siblings and I were young when we were first exiled to Uzbekistan. We went by train. They took me by train for a month. Anyone who said anything on the train was thrown into the water. No water or food. We traveled for a month on the train, hungry and unattended. We had many difficulties. When I tell it now, I’m trembling because of the difficulties I had. I entered Uzbekistan young and came out old. There is no mother and father. “We lived as orphans in Uzbekistan for 40 years.“

3.0 Berlin Wall

The Berlin Wall, symbolizing a period in which the idea of ensuring national security by building walls was increasingly accepted, was demolished on November 9, 1989, 34 years ago.

II. After the USA, England, France and the Soviet Union, which won World War II, divided Germany and Berlin into four, the administrations of the control areas of the USA, England and France were combined and the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) was established in 1949, and in the region under the control of the Soviet Union, the German Democratic Republic (East Germany), whose political structure was based on the Soviet Socialist system, was established.

While West Germany increased its level of welfare, East Germany did not develop economically, and young people, mostly young people, began to flee to West Germany. Wishing to prevent this, the East German administration first closed its own perimeter with barbed wire, and when the wires did not prevent escapes, the Berlin Wall, 3.6 meters high, approximately 44 kilometers long in the city and 112.7 kilometers long, was built in 1961.

More than 300 surveillance towers were built along the wall, which has 8 border crossing gates between East and West Berlin, and approximately 11,500 soldiers and police served. Despite these measures, many East German citizens tried to move to the “West“. Until the wall falled on November 9, 1989, more than 5 thousand people achieved to cross the wall and cross into West Germany, while at least 138 people lost their lives during this attempt.

The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 brought about the end of the Cold War in the world. In the following period, the two Germanys were united, and the European Union continued to expand by incorporating European countries in the former Eastern bloc.

4.0 Balfour Declaration

Another important event that took place in November was the Balfour Declaration of 2 November 1917, which changed the fate of Palestine.

Balfour, then British Foreign Secretary, stated with explanation in 67 word to support the establishment of a "Jewish national homeland" in the Palestinian territories, which were a part of the Ottoman Empire

.The declaration was sent as an attachment to a letter to Rothschild Lord George, one of the leaders of the Jewish citizens of the United Kingdom at the time. Lord Rothschild is the leading advocate of Zionism, the ideal of establishing an independent state in the lands called Palestine at the time, extending from the east bank of the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, which the Jews consider their "historical homeland", and is the president of the British Zionist Federation. Declaration text was published in newspapers on November 9, 1917, a week after sending to Lord Rothschild by letter.

This is also the first open support for Zionism by a powerful and influential country in the world. On the other hand, instead of "state" in the text, the more vague concept of "national homeland" is deliberately used, and it is also stated which borders are meant by Palestine. The British government later stated that when it said "a Jewish homeland in Palestine" it did not mean all of Palestine.

In 1939, the British government admitted that it had made a mistake with the Balfour Declaration. The government acknowledged that the views of the local people should have been considered before making such a statement and that the declaration should also include the guarantee of the political rights of Palestinians. However, now developments were starting to get out of his control.

Although the rate of large-scale wars worldwide has decreased from 17% to 4%, the fact that residential conflicts have reached a significant proportion of 96% can give us preliminary information about the direction and content of new wars. At the time of this speech, the ongoing Hamas -Israel conflict is an example of new wars. In fact, Chinese strategists call the feature of these wars unlimited war. According to them, the first rule of unlimited War is that there are no valid rules.

Mary Kaldor clarifies the concept of new wars in her work titled "New Wars ". Kaldor classifies the differences between old wars and new wars as actors, targets, methods and financial structures. In terms of actors, while old wars are occurred between sovereign states and regular armies of states, new wars are occurred between various combinations of non-state actors - such as paramilitary groups, regular armed forces, jihadist groups. While in old wars, actors fight for geopolitical interests and ideology, new wars involve the struggle for identity - religious, ethnic, tribal. For private groups, the aim is to penetrate the state. While the decisive factor in old wars was confrontation, in new wars there is rarely territorial control, and the capture of population and political tools is a priority. In terms of financial structures, old wars are financed by taxation or foreign states, while new wars are financed by means such as kidnapping, diaspora support, diamond, drug and human trafficking. While old wars were centralized in terms of revenue sources, new wars are clearly globalized.

We can list the general characteristics of Kaldor's new war approach as follows.

-Not state-centered,
-Conflicts where ethnic, religious and ideological differences come out,
-The war is directed against civilians,
-Gaining an international dimension with globalization,
-The spread of weapons
-Influence of media

Charles J. Dunlap , “ The Three Blocks In his work titled "War : Fighting in Urban Areas ", he explains that new strategies need to be developed to overcome with the increasing importance of cities in new wars and that the war consists of the 3 blocks given below.

-First block, the area where military operations took place,
-Second block, the area where civilians live,
-Third block, those who experienced the consequences of the war in the second block.

Dunlap lists the strategies that need to be implemented for success as civil-military cooperation, support of the local people and managing the elements like a peacekeeping force. On the other hand, we see that the concept of "Irregular Wars or Small Wars" is frequently used. Irregular war is defined as a violent struggle between state and non-state actors to create legitimacy and influence over the target audience by The US Department of Defense, which has the ability to carry out the most effective conventional and unconventional military activities in the world. It is stated that military and other capabilities can also be used within an indirect and asymmetric approach to break the opponent's power, influence and desire in irregular war. As it is clearly understood from the definition, both the state (authority) and the non-state actor (challenging-testing) are engaged in a struggle for legitimacy on the target society.

Irregular war occurs in an unstable security environment where the population is put at the center by the warring parties. Although irregular war develops in political character, the violent character of the struggle differentiates irregular war from political struggle. However, the opposing sides of irregular wars fight each other both with violent and non-violent actions. Therefore, irregular war aims to influence the public and foreign actors beyond the military approach. Nevertheless, the most important test of irregular war is not only to affect the non-combatant parties, but also to maintain the balance between the violent struggle with the adversary and fulfilling the needs of the people.

David G. Perkins , in his work titled "Century", talks about the "Multi-Faceted War" and touches upon some of the features of this war as summarized below.

- The change in the nature of war and the rise of modern multifaceted warfare.
-A multifaceted approach: Including not only land, air and sea, but also fields such as cyber, space and electromagnetic.
-Strategies for preparation for multi-domain war: Personnel training, technological investments, logistics and intelligence sharing...
-Civil society is now also affected.
-Therefore, war should be discussed not only in the military field, but also in its economic, social and political dimensions.

There are also studies on "how wars can end" on war and especially on the evolution of new wars. One of these works is the Goemans's book which is called War and Punishment" published in 2000, the book which came to the fore again with the Ukraine-Russia war. In his work, Goemans mentions 3 parameters for the war to end.

1. Information: Clear information about difficult situations is essential for the resumption of negotiations.
2. Credible Commitment: Once there is an agreement, there is no mechanism to maintain the peace. There is no enforcement power.
3. Domestic Politics: It is not over until leaders have full control over their internal masses.

When talking about wars and therefore security and when it comes to the Middle East, we cannot do without mentioning David Fromkin's work called "The Peace That Ends Peace". In the work, the seeds of the crises sown with a map of the Middle East centered on national interests, far from the realities of the region drawn by the imperial states with a ruler after World War I, are the biggest trigger of the problems we face today. The region is faced with the burdens of colonial legacy and suppressed and frozen problems are emerging more intensely.

Human Security was placed at the center of the three-ring security system, which consists of the national security system at the innermost, the immediate environment threat ring and the global threat ring at the outermost, with the "Human Development Report" of the United Nations dated 1994. The concept of human security aims to focus on people who are exposed to multidimensional threats and inequalities created by conflicts and globalization. Human security, which covers 7 areas as economy, food, health , environment, individual (violence), society, and political ( liberties ), refers to the protection of people against sudden and painful fluctuations in home, workplace, society and daily life.

What is happening around the world shows that ensuring human security still seems like a utopia. What happened in Darfur , Yemen and Gaza constitute the strongest examples.

Another concept that we will start to hear more about human security today is "ontological security" . Ontological security, which can be summarized as the individual feeling safe in an environment of stability and sustainability, and feeling threatend and anxious under uncertainty, can be explained as the individual's perception of security regarding his identity and self.
A few topics that can be used in future-oriented studies are included under main headings.
Two important issues emphasized in the study titled as Economic Trends Affecting World Peace (1929-Morizt Bonn and Andre Siegfried):

1. To maintain their privileged position of the powerful, while others seek more power.
2. The one who has nothing wants something, the one who has something wants more, and the one who has much wants to keep it.

Ratzel , in his work "Laws of Spatial Growth of States", likens the border of the state to a living organism in a state of constant fluidity. This work also inspired Hitler's living space strategy.

Lenin explains politics as the concentrated expression of economics.
States often develop economic measures during times of war in preparation for the arrival of peace. The Salzburg meeting of the German Ministry of Armaments on 10 August 1944 should be taken into consideration as an example in this regard.

Lorot and Thual, in their work "La Geopolitique ", emphasize that the defining characteristic of modern geopolitics is that the importance of military factors has decreased compared to economic factors and that the search for economic power is the main strategy of all developed countries.

Mark Twain: History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes .

Cicero : Not knowing anything about what happened before you were born causes you to always remain a child.

The USA declared war on Japan and gave warships to the USSR, MILEPOST – Hula Project: 149 of 180 ships were delivered to the USSR. Training of 12 thousand Soviet Soldiers, 750 of whom were officers

It should be taken into account in planning that there are three main conditions for a deterrence strategy:

1. Having powerful and credible power.
2. Having the political will to use power.
3. To give a message on topics 1 and 2.

Göring -Nuremberg Tribunal: Ordinary people do not want war. All you have to do is tell them that they are under attack, and accuse the pacifists of lacking patriotism and endangering the country. This works the same in every country.

Robert Kaplan: New Post Modern Kaplan - Crowds speaking out against real and perceived injustices - People demanding change in underdeveloped countries, angry youth in developed countries.

Martin Shaw : Transfer wars - Raging about the economic crisis instead of corruption

Machiavelli : Defeating the enemy from within - The enemy with internal problems is ready to be conquered.

Religious fervor: Weaponization of religion in the service of geopolitical goals

Sun- Tzu : Do not attack those who are helpless, wait until they find a way to survive.“

Kissinger: A foreign policy that is born in the minds of a few people and carried to the minds of no one has no chance of success.

In the final analysis; We will continue to live in an environment where the problems created by trying to maintain the existence of institutions, ways of thinking and interest groups that symbolize the old period, continuing with structures and attitudes from the Cold War, old doctrines that have partially or completely lost their validity, and ultimately not being able to keep up with the current change, accelerate the problems with the snowball effect.
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Continents ( 5 Fields )
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TASAM Africa 0 149
TASAM Asia 0 236
TASAM Europe 0 44
TASAM Latin America & Carribea... 0 34
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TASAM Türkiye ( 1 Fields )
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TASAM Türkiye 0 229

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