TASAM | Artificial Intelligence and Robotic Armies in the Wars of th...

Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın

SUMMARY

Historically, quality and numerical superiority have been vital, enabling modern armies to gain superiority on the battlefield. Rapid military-technological change in Artificial Intelligence-AI and robotic weapon systems due to the political and economic developments that led to the Second World War and the Cold War; has brought up the use of modern conventional and nuclear weapons. Modern technological advances will change the character of war and have the potential to influence the nature of war. In the first quarter of the XXI century, modern aviation, due to advanced technologies and AI-Artificial Intelligence software, is experiencing a great revolutionary change. It is foreseen that the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - UAVs in our daily lives will increase all over the world in the future. New technological innovations could have large scale consequences are now directly tied to the weaponization of AI for the global balance of power and international conflict. ^{^[1]}

The rapid development in Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides new advanced capabilities in both military and non-military domains, from drones that carry medicines to the sick and elderly, spraying fields, firefighting robots that extinguish fires, and "killer robots" that can revolutionize the battlefield, the extraordinary potential applications of artificial intelligence that can deliver both software that helps human civilization and hypersonic nuclear missiles to intercontinental targets continue their technological development rapidly. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that whichever country becomes the leader in artificial intelligence (AI) “will become the ruler of the world.“ ^{^[2]} In this context, AI could dominate the world? How might the rise of AI global military capabilities weaken or strengthen wars escalation of the future deterrence possibilities? Does the diffusion of emerging technologies signify shift in warfare or is it a mere revolutionary change? How might the existing nuclear arms control regime be reconfigured and broadened to incorporate emerging technologies like AI? Let us discuss the current and closely related perspective of this issue and the real situation on the ground. If Russia's hypersonic missiles against Ukraine in response to the post-Kerch Strait offensive and the Iranian-made Kamikaze drones were equipped with tactical nuclear warheads, how could NATO and world security be affected today? How effective are emerging technologies to counter security threats and challenges of the XXI ^st century?

We think while under the applications sectors in health, transportation, communication services, agriculture and business logistics can advance human development, military applications of artificial intelligence have included in the priority agenda of the XXI century a significant change that can make war more likely and / or increase its lethality. AI’s use in this capacity heralds a ‘fifth revolution in military affairs’. Today there is an ongoing international arms race in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). There is an ongoing international arms race in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) emphasis is on employing AI-enhanced warfare strategies which to produce truly game-changing strategic effects against state adversaries.^{^[3]} The academic idea and the main problematic of this article show that we have entered a new era, just like the speed of data-driven warfare, the force multiplier effect on the field of operations, the "game-changing character" of armies in their war strategies and the uncertainty of the "deadly effects" they carry, just like the dramatic consequences of the Entry into the Nuclear Age of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Many analysts warn that taken as a whole, this rapid transition represents a dramatic shift that is accelerating the convergence of physical, digital, and biological technologies, representing the early stages of a massive military technological revolution. In fact, this is a difficult testing while revolutionary technologies in the entire history of civilization are very promising for humanity, they can pose a risk to international peace and security when considered for military uses, as well as the need for limitations that necessitate new international agreements in the future in terms of their legal and moral consequences. Additionally, AI will be more useable across a full spectrum of force, and indeed more broadly than force itself, shaping all conflicts from the lowest to highest intensity and the smallest to largest scale.^{^[4]} As a result, this article examines the strategic, technological, military tactical operational dimensions and possible legal developments of a new wave of "artificial intelligence robotic military revolution", conventional and nuclear. It aims to discuss the future roadmaps of differences in scientific perspective.

INTRODUCTION:

Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this emerging technology will have a deterministic and potentially transformative influence on military power, strategic competition, and world politics more broadly. AI-related innovations and technological developments that will likely have genuine consequences for military applications from a tactical battlefield perspective to the strategic level. ^{^[5]}AI systems play a powerful role in cyber space for both defensive and offensive measures. The use of AI on weapons platforms used by armies on the battlefield can have a deterrence coefficient that can undermine both conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence between states by lowering the war threshold that will force multiply the capacity of the world’s militaries to project power. These advanced technologies are beginning to have a transformative effect on defense capability. AI will have digital, physical and political security implications, expand existing threats, introduce new threats, and change the character of war in the near future. What makes AI's technical superiority important is that it can destroy the firepower capacity of land, sea, air and space weapon systems on the battlefield with absolute precision by supplying them to fixed and mobile targets. But robotic autonomous systems equipped with AI are the use of physical objects in tanks, aircraft or ships without human supervision and without endangering the lives of military personnel as an attack against very well-defended enemy targets. Thus AI technologies increasingly remove the soldier from the conflict region. Much of the argument revolves around whether such machines would be able to uphold the principle of noncombatant immunity.

[1] Areas of discovery overlapping neuroscience, quantum computing and biotechnology are advancing quickly and represent uncharted territory in the evolution of “intelligent machines.“

[2] Edoardo Maggio: ''Putin believes that whatever country has the best AI will be 'the ruler of the world''', Business Insiders, 4 September 2017, https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-believes-country-with-best-ai-ruler-of-the-world-2017-9

[3] Rod Thornton & Marina Miron: ‘’ Towards the ‘Third Revolution in Military Affairs’, The RUSI Journal, 2020, Vol.165, No:3, pp.12-21.

[4][4] Kenneth Payne: ‘’Artificial Intelligence: A Revolution in Strategic Affairs?’’ Survival, 2018, Vol. 60, No:5, pp. 7-32,

[5] James Johnson: ‘’Artificial Intelligence & Future Warfare: Implications for International Security’’, Defense & Security Analysis, 2019, Vol.35, No:2, pp.147-169.