TASAM | 9th Istanbul Security Conference (2023) “Strategic Transform...

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9^TH ISTANBUL SECURITY CONFERENCE (2023)
“Strategic Transformation in the Ecosystem: Climate, Nourishment, Demography, Meritocracy, Economy, Health, Education, Employment, Family-Youth and City Security“
( 23-24 November 2023, Istanbul )

If you are interested in submitting a paper in order to attend at the 9^th Istanbul Security Conference (2023) as a speaker, you need to submit via verdasensoy@tasam.org with an MS Word document which includes following items:
- Title of your paper
- 300 words abstract, 5 keywords
- Your Institutional Connection and Curriculum Vitae
- Your Cell Phone Number (if not written in the CV)

Important Dates
Deadline for submission of abstract : 30 April 2023
Successful authors will be notified by : 31 May 2023
Final texts shall be delivered by : 30 September 2023
Conference date : 23-24 November 2023

Required Information
- Abstract/article acceptance process is conducted by using the blind review method by our referee board.
- All full texts complying with the abstract and accepted as scientific proficiency will be published as a compilation book.
- There is no charge for the submitted abstract and presentation of accepted papers.
- Transportation, accommodation and local expenses are provided by the participants.

Strategic Panorama

The scope of "geopolitics" and the meaning of the underlying geopolitical realities are changing rapidly. Geopolitics is either being updated or upgraded by this change. Geopolitics is still a dynamic phenomenon with its many underlying factors, and its pressure on the "power elites" is significantly increasing, despite the "immutable", as some geopoliticians suppose, or "intransigent" facts of geography.

It appears that the major factor of the underlying "politics" and therefore the underlying ideologies of geopolitics is the power elites, not physical geography, since the political power elites can change hands as well as their position or location. If this is the case, then the arguments for geography would weaken, or become completely questionable.

In today's world in which asymmetrical power relations have already become prevailed, the status quo policies-based 20th century strategies can no longer be effective. The arguably unipolar world, since 1990, is also not the any longer, as well as the absence of bipolar power relations. What we observe now is a tendency towards a real political multipolarity. It appears that it is not possible to achieve a multipolar world order simply based on the strategic thinking marked by outdated ideologies, so it is imperative to develop new perspectives.

Current sophisticated environment of conflict tends to expand along with changing warfare strategies, modes of deployments, engagement positions etc., and becomes persistent in a way of widespread small or medium-scaled warfare. What makes even sharper the need for new approaches is the current global landscape, which is often called “World War III“.

The idea that capitalism, which is the epicenter of imperial impositions driven (exacerbated, aggravated) by hegemonic competition, has already came to a head (grind to a halt, shudder to a halt, reached its limit) and cannot any longer pass a new enlargement phase have become more common. The structural crisis persists and the capability of the system to sustain itself is dwindling away in economic terms.

The efforts to deal with the current structural crisis include certain changes in geopolitical objectives, increased hegemonic competition over the resources, and most ironically, leveraging the instruments such as conflicts or wars.

The current centers are targeting to enlarge their peripheries, thus preventing the new centers to emerge. As Barry Gills puts it, "underpinning all hegemonic transitions is a secular developmental and under-developmental process which restructures the hierarchy of center-periphery relations". The center-periphery relations, which is defined as "unequal distribution of capabilities between states", pave the way for hegemony, since it seeks to establish some kind of order in the areas of accumulation.

The rivalry over the Eurasian geopolitical area, one of the parts of which is the Middle East, is among the key factors that will be able to make the transition to hegemony possible. The rise of the region as a new center of production and consumption or simply capital or capitalism is fueled by certain factors such as the regional availability to "political power centralization", abundant resources but mostly from its integral part, the Middle East, especially in terms of energy resources, as well as its growing economic dynamics.

It appears that Russia and China are still rising as hegemonic powers driven by anti-US ambitions, thus moving to the center of a political and economic expansion. The Ukraine War, which is one of the noticeable results of power struggle between global hegemonic actors, is sort of a laboratory for "World War III".

Major difference between previous wars and a potential world war would be the prudence against or avoidance of a total or destructive war without abandoning or relinquishing the current geopolitical objectives. The nature of hegemonic rivalry and the modalities of cooperation are changing, while the competition is getting sharper.

It appears that it is not possible to understand the pursuit of a hegemonic transition without any consideration about a potential World War III, which originated in 1991, the collapse of the USSR. This pre-war period can be broken down into four phases: “preparation“, “beginning“, “deepening“ and “expansion“.

The world soon realized that how narrow, as the facts surfaced, the perspective is when it comes to the efforts to establish a new world order, driven by the USA's ambition to impose a unipolar world under its domination as top superpower, suggested by certain theories such as the "end of history", "clash of civilizations" etc.

Today, hegemonic powers are in a frantic scramble for the African continent, which has the youngest population, dynamic economies and richest resources in the world. It is this frantic scramble that ended up increasing military coups across the continent, especially over the last three years. The major problem, however, is that the Africans themselves are still not able to access Africa's abundant resources.

The Bering Strait with its both sides has emerged a new area for struggle, as well as the North Pacific Ocean, which is another region that is under the impact of power struggles. The Arctic Ocean has the potential to be a new global trade route, as the role of the South Pacific region would decrease over time as a result of global warming. Joint air and maritime patrol operations and drills conducted by Russia and China in the North Pacific Ocean are increasing, thus indicating the increasing importance of the region.

It appears that the US entered a new period in terms of its Defence measures as part of its National Security Strategy (2022). It is thought that, during this period, the current modes of warfare might be abandoned, the need for keeping the balance between preparing for a large-scale and long-lasting war and day-to-day rivalry. And the failure of the US in focusing on or investing in non-military capabilities might result in the risk of leaving both the field and the domains where seizing the superiority is most preferable by the rivals stepping up their ambition. Briefly, what needs to be taken into account is that the US will maintain its competitive edge by giving priority to closing critical gaps in its capabilities.

Potential or characteristic developments or actions that we may expect to emerge over the years to come are as follows: China's increasing activities in the Middle East, especially around the Gulf region and the tensions between China and Taiwan as well as China and India, China's increasing initiatives as part of the Belt and Road project in the countries of its neighboring region including Uzbekistan, Russia's efforts to maintain its military and economic capabilities despite its war with Ukraine, the organizational efforts by the Organization of Turkic States, the increasing scramble for the South Caucasus region, the ambitions concerning the Pacific-centered security structures that the US has not been able to achieve yet, increased terror activities across the world especially in Africa, the prolonged tensions in the Balkans, the increased space exploration activities, Poland's possible strategic moves as the new central power leveraged by the US, the attempts or preparations for the coup observed/revealed in Germany and the US, the questions about whether the act, which is not handing over the post to the newly elected representatives, in South America, after the elections, tends to become a habit (which would imply that Plato is proved right once again!), the increasing role of media as an integral or even essential part of the national power elements, achievability of “grand“ strategies, negative developments concerning the future of efforts against global warming, potential answers to the question “Digital trust or digital insecurity?“, search for effective instruments to resolve the blocked diplomacy, the increasing role or effectiveness of Defence diplomacy and humanitarian diplomacy, the increasing measures against a potential surveillance society model.

Among the issues or problems that need to be discussed are as follows: growing populism, the impacts of increasing global warming and migrations including the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions, food and water security including Africa and underdeveloped countries, change in demographic structures as a result of increasing populations, contribution of smart cities to security and public health, the possibility of a workforce, which might be able to emerge as a result of the replacement of humans by robots, as a new source of employment for private military companies and terrorist groups, as well as the issues mentioned in previous passage.

Strategic Transformation

Today's national or international politics is characterized by a change and transformation at an unprecedented pace manifested by the concepts such as “information age“, industry 4.0“, “society 5.0“, “big data“, “blockchain“, “social media“ etc. The domain that is most impacted by this change and transformation is security, regardless of whether it gives priority to the state or the people.

In fact, not only the scope but also the very meaning of the security concept are constantly evolving and expanding. A series of major or even revolutionary changes to business and meritocratic governance models as well as to security perspectives is observable when we look at the global arena, in which the distributed ledger instruments used by sort of an unidentifiable "center", except as "decentralized center" because it is not "visible, identifiable, accountable" and whose influence surpasses the capabilities of individual states for the first time, combining with all other historical and conventional dynamics.

Given these background, and even if the current security infrastructure appears resilient, it is imperative to think more broadly over the issues concerning more specific security domains such as climate security, food security, demographic security, economic security, health security, employment and job security, protection and improvement of family structures and youth, city security, maintenance of the state in harmony with meritocratic governance, institutionalization, necessary professional qualifications and certifications for a profession or occupation, constant/active updates/upgrades in education.

These specific areas of change, which have great potential for innovation and new platforms in security and Defence sectors, tend to be the integral part of the ecosystem.

Crisis concerning the environment or climate has reached a critical level, which represents a threat to the future of humanity. It appears that the frantic capitalist production and consumption patterns have a tendency consuming up the non-renewable resources, during just a few centuries, which need billions of years to be built up. Living elements such as underground resources, water resources and the atmosphere have simply become sort of consumption materials, which are on the verge of extinction or contamination. So it is necessary to consider the current production and consumption patterns again.

The climate change, which is one of the most important specific environmental security issues, threatens the security of countries in many aspects. The climate change causes a series of negative consequences, including the changes in annual rainfall patterns, glacier melting, rise in sea levels, the extinction of certain species, public health problems and negative effects on food production. The climate change is a global threat so it requires political, economic and social cooperation at the national, regional and global levels.

Rise in global temperatures causes some countries to alert against floods, drought to a certain degree, decreased natural resources, increased social and political crises, as well as serious security risks for fragile countries in particular. Climate change is still being used by developed countries as a restrictive and transformative pressure instrument on underdeveloped and developing countries in particular. The global governance network that emerges in the fight against climate change is organized mostly in favor of the interests of developed countries, neglecting or even hindering the development efforts of underdeveloped or developing countries. This poses a serious economic security threat for underdeveloped and developing countries. The measures and the policies for environmental security should address this challenge through an inclusive and fair approach.

Food security, which specifies the availability of healthy food necessary for nutrition, has recently become an increasingly complicated issue that needs to be dealt with its all aspects including politics, economics, society and culture. The food security is defined by UN's Committee on World Food Security (CFS) as physical, social and economic access, by any person and any time, to adequate, safe, nutritious food that meets the food preferences and nutritional needs of people.

Climate change, increase in global population, rise in food prices as well as environmental challenges will have significant but difficult-to-manage impacts on food security over the decades to come. It is necessary to develop certain policies and adaptation strategies concerning water use, land use patterns, food trade, food processing following the harvest season, food prices and safety.

It has been expected, since the 20^th century and with the help of technological and scientific developments, that food security issues will be resolved permanently in all countries without any exception. However, it turned out very differently. In fact, it is understood that the technological developments in the food sector have negative effects on health security including potential threat to humanity posed by GMO products, political regimes in certain countries etc. Food production and trade has become a powerful instrument used by countries against each other as is the case for the Ukraine crisis. It is imperative for the countries to find solutions for the food problem in order not to lose their grounds in the domains such as demography, politics, economics, society and culture, and not to lose the battle of survival.

When it comes to demographic security, the major problem is lack of capabilities in terms of policy making and coordination activities concerning family planning, education, employment etc. This situation causes severe problems including internal migration or moving within a country, international migration flows and brain drain. It is believed that the global population growth causes problems including climate change, deforestation, as well as the extinction of certain species. However, it also appears that these problems have simply resulted from the lack of coordination and proper planning. Furthermore, rewarding "genderlessness", which is directly targeting the very nature of man, through "intentional inducement" is one of the major threats to humanity itself.

The declining share of the western populations in the global population, as a result of sharp increase in Asian and African populations, tends to be perceived as a severe threat by western countries, which are trying to cope with the effects of an aging population that is seen as a burden on the state and society. Western countries, therefore, seeks to take strict measures in order to control the demographic changes in other countries. This would be a threat to the demographic security of non-western countries.

Historically, those who uplift civilizations to the higher levels have been the elite segments of societies. Civilizations that have lack of capabilities in raising elite segments are prone to collapse. A famous aphorism, "the death of the âlim (polymath, wise-man) is like the death of the âlem (universe, world)“, goes to the very heart of this situation.

One of the most important flaws of democracies, which is often referred to as "faute de mieux" type of regimes, is that their anti-elite character. A society, however, without elite groups in certain areas such as science, art, culture and politics has practically no future at all. It is the elite segment of a society who communicate or transfer the institutional or historical accumulation of a state to new generations and make both the state and society resilient. This idea does not necessarily mean "elitism" or social monopoly. Rather, the elite segment that we suggest here is a class of wise-persons each member of which is supposed to be a mentor of sorts or a figure par excellence. Being an elitist, however, is an attitude that downgrades the society, or humiliates the people, sets barriers to the movement of the brilliant minds within the society from which often disconnected and to which harms instead of benefiting.

Today, the people give more importance to vanity, panache and gimmickry instead of the essence and character or quality. Current trend, especially social trend, represents an environment in which quality is neglected and even assumed unnecessary. So it has become more important to have an artificial elite profile, rather than a real distinguished character. This situation becomes more crucial when it comes to security and the survival of the state, even though the negative effects of it have been felt in every aspect of life.

Recent developments in the economics domain have direct impact on all security related issues, including the survival of the state. Governments that have lack of capabilities to stabilize their economic security cannot achieve their objectives in other security domains such as energy and food security as well as military and social security.

Access to strategic/rare earth elements has also become extremely important for countries if they are to take more active role or a better position in the global economy. Rapid developments that are defined as Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0 shows that it is necessary to engage in the trends in the international arena, to update outdated economic policies constantly, and to develop proactive and guiding policies. There have been radical structural changes in global economy, during this period some sectors have disappeared or weakened, some others have emerged. So, the share of the production sector in the entire economy is decreasing, those of the financial sector or secondary sectors, however, is increasing.

Considering even strong countries entrenched in the current economic environment are in recession, the countries that are able to survive are only those that have the certain capabilities such as guiding innovation, managing the emerging issues, following the agenda or conjuncture in an effective way in coordinating the financial, industrial and financial sectors, as well as producing high added value products.

Economies of many developing or underdeveloped countries have become more and more trapped in a spiral of debt, thus rapidly moving away from the capability of maintaining the state and society, which is a consequence that is a threat to survival of the state. So, most recent developments and new instruments in economy, including production, commerce, finance and fiscal policies, should be carefully updated or sometimes upgraded by leveraging intensive high added value product development policies.

The stronger the society, the stronger the state. If public health is in danger, then not only the political structure of the state but also the social life and economy would be under threat. Threats to public health are also the threats to the economy and social integrity, and consequently to the survival of the state.

Although the technologies are developing in an unprecedented manner and at an unprecedented pace in many areas including public health, social security, environment, agriculture etc., the problems related with Covid-19 crisis, environment, GMO products, social security systems etc. have shown that humanity is still far from facing the threats to its survival in this field. The fact that significant part of the threats to health are caused by man's actions increases the potential threats to life itself and makes health security more fragile than before. So it is imperative to develop medical intelligence instruments, update national health policies without any interruption, and improve the combat capabilities against global threats to health.

It is clear that the recent developments in the education sector are closely related to the national security. In fact, education is essential for a society not only to survive itself but its civilization. The survival of the state depends on the citizens who are educated on the basis of national awareness principle. So the improvement of education policies, in a way that is able to protect the integrity of society and ensure the survival of the state, should always be in the agenda of priorities.

One of the other important issues is to achieve a good balance between education/training and employment. One of the biggest issues to be resolved urgently is the failure to find qualified staff in many sectors, even though there is a qualified staff surplus in certain sectors. One of the other most important problems is the brain drain. It is significant to develop policies that is able to manage to maintain qualified staff in the homeland and even attract qualified staff from densely populated countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Cities have always been favorable environments for civilization to flourish and progress throughout history. The countryside, which are more safe spaces in terms of certain factors such as economy, culture and society, have become a center of attraction for thousands of people. Some important cities, however, have eventually disappeared, since they have failed in terms of the factors in question. Fair and highest access to the basic rights and freedoms including inviolability of family life, safety of life and property, health, education is only possible if there is safe, and well-coordinated public and civil society cooperation as well as well-organized cities. Cities are significant for peace and security or stability in terms of both domestic and foreign politics as well as the safe environment available for human life. In fact, the location of the capital city of a country or the characteristics of the chosen city as the capital have always been directly connected with the conventions concerning the survival and international recognition of a state.

Security of the cities has gained a special importance as a result of the urbanization process, which is a significant factor in transition to modern life. Today, city security is essential in terms of more specific factors such as keeping national culture and national awareness alive, effectiveness of economic policies, preservation of social and political integrity, and peaceful and strong relations with other countries, including neighboring countries. Foreign policy engagements of countries as well as the security of cities are affected by migration movements. These effects are deeply felt by certain countries, such as Türkiye, where most of the population is concentrated in a few major cities, and which adjacent to hotspots of unrest. So, security of the cities has already become a significant factor that directly affects national and regional security. In fact, geographic, demographic and economic characteristics of the cities should be taken into account in order for their planning, managing and controlling or monitoring processes to be effective, which requires more security measures, more effective balance between human rights and criminal sanctions, more strict control on migration movements.

Security field is still growing in scope, and becoming more and more sophisticated not only because of the new challenges driven by recent developments in politics, economics, technology etc., but because of more diversified and more profound large-scale field studies. The need for more studies in security, which is indispensable for a safer environment, is also increasing. So the conference in this framework aims to make a contribution to meet this need.

Sub-Themes
Strategic Transformation in Ecosystem
New Products and Platforms in Ecosystem
Climate Security (Water, Environment, Energy)
Food Security (Nutrition, Hidden Hunger or Micronutrient Deficiency, Immunity and Epidemics)
Demographic Security
Meritocratic Security
Economy Security
Health Security
Education Security
Employment Security
Family and Youth Security
City Security

SUB-EVENTS

2nd Istanbul Cyber-Security Forum (ICF)
“New Cyber Economy and Turkish Products“

5th Marine and Maritime Security Forum (MSF)
“New Opportunities in Maritime Economy and Türkiye“

6th Türkiye - Africa Defence Security and Aerospace Forum (TAF)
“Turkish Military Presence and New Horizons in Africa“

7th Türkiye - Gulf Defence and Security Forum (TGF)
“New Discoveries in the Turkish - Arab Security Ecosystem“