Ali Bilgin Varlık
Assoc. Prof., İstanbul Arel Uni., IR Branch
Assoc. Prof., İstanbul Arel Uni., IR Branch
Abstract
In the international political order, the global hegemons’ era is about to finalise. The capacity for the sustainment of the “after hegemony“ has diminished, and been replaced by the conditions of the “post-after hegemony“. In the future, all potential hegemons will deny others’ hegemony. The post-after hegemonic era will be shaped by the global economic system and technological developments, demographic fault lines, and disordered international political science. A new form of regionalism, functional cooperation between states and mutual interdependence between equals, and denying hegemony will be the main determinants of the new era.
1. Introduction
The answer to what global politics is likely to be in the future has always been one of the most critical areas of research. Relatively successful theses on projecting the future are the ones which can well-read what will be the dominant power and how it will operate. How about a world of no global hegemon? The main thesis of the paper is that the future global political arena will be shaped under “post-after hegemony“ conditions which indicates that the global hegemons’ era is about to finalise.
The concept of “after hegemony" as prominently explained by Robert Keohane (1984) in his outstanding study with that name, indicates that despite the erosion of the USA's dominance there still was a volunteer acceptance for the continuation of the world order –particularly in the international political economy. Now it is almost obvious that the USA can no longer sustain its dominant role even under "after hegemony" comforts. Other big powers are and will be too short to fill this role.
In the future, all potential hegemons will deny others’ hegemony while the rest of the world previously suffered from the hegemonic international system will likely be reluctant to accept any dominancy. As long as the rapidly changing, complex security environment continues every global power’s domination or hegemony capacity will be severely challenged. The global economic system and technological developments which triggered the 4th industrial revolution, prominent demographic fault lines, and anarchic and sometimes chaotic international political environment with multi actors are the makers of the post-after hegemonic era. Expected consequences of the post-after hegemony will likely be multiple futures, which will pose extreme differences, for every social level. In this new environment regional and global risks, threats and dangers will unprecedentedly interchange with each other.
2. Makers of Post-After Hegemonic Arena
2.1. Global economic System and Technological Developments
2.1.1. Global economic system
As Karl Marx (1963: 122) in his “The Poverty of Philosophy“ pointed out in 1847 social relations are closely bound up with productive forces. Global economic systems and technology set the infrastructure which shapes the superstructure such as social, cultural, and political fabrics of societies at the individual, community, state and international levels across the world.
The global economic system is dominantly shaped by the so-called liberal, but, limping liberal, and a more savage capitalist system under the ecosystem of globalization. Contrary to its advantages, globalization does not change the overarching type of relationship between the poor and the rich. While the West consumes precious resources of the rest of the World, great masses of Africa, Asia and South America are deprived of basic needs.
Relations between undeveloped – developing – developed countries work at the expense of disadvantaged groups not only interstate but also within the states. As inequality within nations erodes citizens’ loyalty to the ruling regimes, the increasing gap between nations loosens hegemonic ties while acerbating hostilities against previous patrons, ‘elder brothers’, or allies. Weakening intellectual middle classes of the nations also melt down ideological ties within the alliances. This process while creating a minority of collaborators for TNC (Trans National Cartels) builds up radicalized masses of alienated, rejectionist, or antagonist stances.
