TASAM | 8th Istanbul Security Conference

8^TH İSTANBUL SECURITY CONFERENCE | 2022
MERTER DECLARATION

Istanbul Security Conference, which took place for the 1^st time in Türkiye in 2015, was held 8^th time this year under the main theme “Post-Security Dilemmas, Integrations, Models and Asia“, by TASAM’s National Defence and Security Institute on 03-04 November 2022 in Ramada Hotel & Suites by Wyndham Istanbul Merter. A large number of speakers, from various disciplines, and delegates from different countries and regions have participated in the 8^th Istanbul Security Conference, which has become a regional and global brand. All relevant authorities from Türkiye have also been represented at the conference, sessions were followed institutionally.

Sub-events organized thematically, as part of the conference, are as follows: 6^th Türkiye - Gulf Defence and Security Forum, under the main theme “New Balances, New Roles, New Alliances“; 5^th Türkiye - Africa Defence Security and Aerospace Forum, under the main theme “The Future Security Ecosystem and Partnership for Strategic Transformation“; 4^th Marine and Maritime Security Forum, under the theme " Asian Century, Maritime State Ecosystem, and Blue Planet“; and Istanbul Cyber-Security Forum, under the theme "Post-Security, Digital Revolution, Circular Economy, and Cyber Ecosystem“. Istanbul Security Conference 2022, which brings together distinguished participants from almost 40 countries including USA, China, Russia, Iran etc. provides a global platform for an in-depth exchange of views, driven by Türkiye-based new perspectives with a competitive edge.

The takeaway points and recommendations offered in the conference, which is intended to focus on informing the public as well as all relevant authorities, are as follows:

The content, vision, proactivity and depth of the first seven Conferences’ declarations published under various names, were confirmed. The importance of institutionalizing the Istanbul Security Conference as a "School" that builds capacity and network on a global scale without worrying about popularity was appreciated.

The international institutions and the understanding of security created after World War II for global balance and control become unable to respond to the security needs of our age. The deepening of the last wave of globalization that started in the 1980s brought with it unprecedented alignments and separations at the global level. In this context, especially in countries considered as the center of capitalism; The divergence between capital circles operating at the global level and those aiming to protect their interests and remain strong at the national level stands out. The main challenge of the 21st century is the absence of a theoretical framework compatible with the scope, scale, and nature of contemporary global security problems.

Although the interests of global capital and national capital sometimes overlap, they often conflict. The experience of the USA in the Trump administration has set a striking example in this regard. Similar developments will likely occur in countries such as China, India, powerful members of the EU, Russia, Japan, and Brazil.

There has been a serious deviation from the traditional nation-state model, in which the capital segments defined themselves with their own countries. This change made it necessary to review the definitions related to the interests and security of the sovereign nation-state. This deepening and complexity in the understanding of security are defined by the concept of "post-security". Now, the possibility of providing security at every national or international level with the understanding and institutions of the past has weakened; state, family, capitalism, university, social welfare, freedom, and liberation, that is, the era of modernity has passed, and the economic and social transformations caused by rapidly developing technologies and the international order dictate the transition to a new framework, that is, a stateless (post-modern) system without borders. ; that the new world order models can be a stronger United Nations World Confederation/Federalism, the World Government (City of God), an English-speaking Air Dictatorship, the New World Order of the global elite, the only world order that can be established in 2045; states and borders will be abolished; a large number of people will die in a nuclear and biological war that may break out; a comprehensive population control awaits us; the physical institutions of the modern era (education, production, bureaucracy, etc.) will be replaced by new digital and remote models; It is discussed that people will lose their ability to think freely, that they will be controlled over the internet with chips, and that they can even be connected.

Security, as a global issue, will be provided "fluently" with global solutions within the framework of rules to be managed from a single-center, post-modern security will provide standard solutions to problems within a unique global organization and job definition, within the framework of crisis management principles that have been prepared in advance, and within the classical understanding of security, in a fluent security understanding. It is envisaged that instead of "huge armed forces with a deterrent function" based on the threat of a wide-ranging military operation, "structures with gendarmerie/police duties" will be needed more, and a system will be created in which elements selected from the force and capability pool will be used for security missions.

Under the title of “Post-Security Dilemmas“; beyond discussions such as "globalists - nationalists", the discussion on whether "one world - one system and an international system consisting of micro-states" or "an option in which nation states continue in a multi-international system" will become operational is based on. It was emphasized that one of these two dilemmas would be decisive for the future of the world, and it was stated that if a picture of "one world - one system and microstates" was to be drawn, this would only be possible with great pain and suffering.

It was emphasized that there was a "moral revolution crisis" on the basis of the world's security problem, and that there was a serious human and environmental trauma in terms of "production, consumption and growth" standards. It was repeated that while Western Europe experiences the syndrome of "failure to succeed", many countries in Africa and Latin America experience this as deprivation and poor living conditions. Considering that the system built after World War II lost momentum after the 2000s, it was stated that there was a need for a moral revolution, and it was not possible to understand the issue only through strategic evaluations or some power correlations. It has been underlined that in order for the world, region and countries to be safe, each country and international system needs a moral revolution in the form of self-renewal and rebirth (Red-Apple, Phoenix, etc.).

To date, there have been global threats, mostly serious and nation states, due to the mistakes of individuals, societies and states, the inability of the international system to function properly, the questioning of the legitimacy of nation-states, and the inadequacy of institutional capacity. For example, the armed forces, which did not contribute much to the Pandemic struggle, could only act in areas that needed logistics. Such states of emergency should be governed by the doctrine of war and security. The end of the operations to continue the effects of the pandemic will only be known in the future. But even now, the changes and transformations it has caused in many critical areas from service to education, especially security and economy, are indisputable.

A major economic crisis on a global scale is getting deeper day by day. The segments that cause the most damage are the middle class and the lower class. Considering that the middle class is the balance and leverage of the state/security, the administration either evolves into authoritarianism or chaos in states that do not have a middle class or are weakened. Since there is no separation of powers to balance each other in the international arena, it is seen that every segment has lost its position and the average has been falling continuously. In the global competitive environment, it is important to study the legitimacy problem of nation-states and the future issue of the middle class and democracies in a security-oriented and comparative manner.

Asia as the world's new production/consumption base; As the new center trying to have the security brought by this wealth, it is shaped as the geography where the current economic cake and new property transfers take place. Asia continues to be decisive in both security and other parameters with an increasing pace. The slogan produced by TASAM (TACSC) in 2008; “19. century was the age of Europe, the 20th century was the age of America, the 21st century will be the age of Asia“.

The resource production model, which is described as "debt-money-debt" in the world, has reached an unsustainable point despite all the extensions and developments after the 2008 crisis. Compared to the world's 305 trillion dollars debt, its annual gross national product is 100 trillion dollars. The system of generating resources by borrowing is about to be clogged. When this system enters a crisis, there will be countless countries, peoples and companies that will fall under it. It has been affirmed that the current resource crisis is actually the basis of this aggressive competition and redefinition of security and conflicts in the world.

The destinies of undeveloped or developing states depend on economically strong states. Examples are; China - Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor (CICPEC), China - Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China - Central Asia - West Asia Economic Corridor (CCWAEC), Bangladesh - China - India - Myanmar Economic Corridor within China's “Belt and Road“ project Corridor (BCIMEC) projects are seen in the accounts that exist in the background.

Russia is a country that has historically been a leverage of the world, especially with its socialist experience. This period led to the construction of the middle class in the West. With the Russia-Ukraine war, it is again a candidate to be a leverage because the world has become polarized at the security point again.

In the global arena, it has been stated that it is an international system candidate defined as a “decentralized center“. The influence of this visible and unaccountable center surpassed nation states for the first time. In an environment where the USA, England and China are intertwined like a matryoshka, what the decentralized center wants will be decisive for the world. Here, it is stated that China is in cooperation with this center, no matter how opposing it is.

England; The effects of these initiatives began to be seen in the transformation of the world, with the reshaping of regional actions after Brexit and starting to work with different countries in some areas of influence that were transferred to the USA. The usual British invisibility is still at work. It is clear that the general state of trust in the EU has decreased with the serious damage of the Eurozone, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and that the EU will be particularly affected by the emerging energy crisis. When these situations are taken into account, the importance of the Brexit process and the vision of a UK that increases its regional and global power in the face of the weakening EU has become much more possible.

There is also the re-regulation of the accumulated power within the seeming polarization between China, Russia and the rest of the world. The point the EU has reached is a geography that produces prosperity but cannot produce its own security, and has the syndrome of "failure in success". It is also possible to claim the current economic position of the dominant actor Germany as the fourth "reich" (German State). There is no security infrastructure to support this yet. Turkey has been showing itself as a regional actor and power in the last 10 years, and Japan, as a Western ally in the Pacific, has great economic power and experience, but it is a country with great constraints left over from the Second World War. It is foreseen that the power accumulated by these countries and the EU will be regulated again, they will be weakened to a great extent and there will be competition in this regard.

It has been stated that the structure defined as the “decentralized center“ has many distributed instruments, and the concept of “distribution“ is a concept that has also entered NATO documents. Instruments that do not have these distributed corporate counterparts; It has been reiterated that it will lead to a major revolution in the business model, security and meritocratic infrastructure, and that countries whose institutional infrastructures are not ready will be extraordinarily affected by this. For example, it is estimated that approximately 10 trillion dollars of money has been absorbed from the market with the crypto money instrument. It is possible to include not only cryptocurrencies, but also blockchain and newer technological trends. The real danger is that those who have suffered losses do not have an acceptor they can hold accountable for. It is envisaged that the archives and corporate records of the government/private are uploaded to the blockchain platforms in the cloud and the system will operate in this way, but the institution or persons to be addressed in case of the loss of the uploaded data is not clear. Financial losses, on the other hand, do not have “absolute existence“ institutions such as the central bank or nation state to be addressed, and the end can reach irrecoverable points. However, on the other hand, it is contrary to the purpose of existence of the state (tax collection, printing money, etc.) and also poses a risk to the provision and protection of national security, which is also the monopoly of the state.

In the global new business model; It was also emphasized that the elimination of the middle class would regress the democratic regimes and the autocracy would rise, since there was no leverage left like the Soviets and China had largely eliminated the middle class with its "reverse leverage of cheap labor".

The global pandemic and turbulence encourage autarky, that is, introversion in an effort to be self-sufficient. This “self-sufficiency“ motto actually means not sharing the capacity that exists in many countries. Although this effort was produced to make economies a little more mobile, it was stated that it was not very sustainable.

One of the most serious consequences of the “moral revolution“ crisis and distributed instruments; It is a humanitarian crisis that can be described as a demographic cancer and also related to ethical moral values. Trauma is experienced from epidemics to obesity, from technology addiction to many other fields. The adoption of individuality as an ideology is also seen in European and Asian societies and in Turkey. The classification of the generations and the comments on the shaping of the present and the future of the generation defined as the "Z generation" are always on the media channels, but it remains unclear what kind of world this generation will create and how it will rule the countries. However, the truth is; is that we are faced with a demographic that forgets basic ancient knowledge and basic human life simplicity. This issue needs to be discussed in a much better and more qualified way by going down to its sociological foundations.

It has been stated that strategic transformation is mandatory for both the world and countries, and the "less resources, more people" model is the recipe for successful meritocracies. The known history of the three great meritocracies; It is stated that China, Iran and Turkey. In the personnel security-centered transformation of the national meritocratic infrastructure, the securitization of each sector and the economicization of each securitization were emphasized. It has been emphasized that there is a need for serious searches on how civil-military relations should be in the new period, and in military governance models, sophisticated - including all areas of life beyond the classical ones - serious - related to food safety, health security, biotechnology, nanotechnology and pandemics - apart from hard power. It has been underlined that we have entered a period in which units and areas of expertise should be formed. Beyond mere defense security expenditures, it is important to re-read the quality and definitions of security expenditures in the changing and transforming new ecosystem.

Another basis of the blockage point of today's world is the transformation of linear economy into circular economy. Instead of the formula of the last century, "produce, consume and dispose"; There is a search for an economic transformation based on cyclicity, as it exists in the essence of the world, the universe and the human being. At the moment, it is a priority for the cyclical economic size to be much higher than 9%, above 50%. In this sense, it was emphasized that it is essential for security, technology and related policies to be transformed within this circular economy model.

In this context, it is important what the leadership and cooperation vision of countries, regions and international organizations will be for strategic transformation. These pursuits, which are also discussed within the EU, will be decisive, such as the formation of alliances and small nuclei within the alliance, and the formation of stronger “centre-periphery“ relations. It has been stated that it is necessary to rethink the priorities and hostilities in the face of the risks facing humanity, that some hostilities are luxurious and unnecessary, and that most countries insist on maintaining them as a purely institutional culture. It has been reiterated that the ecosystem balance comes first for the continuation of the world, the existence of armies and the survival of states, and it has been confirmed that the pandemics should be expected to develop in the axis of cyber security, food shortage, production/consumption security and the measures to be taken should be institutionalized.

At the point of global security and integration; It was emphasized that the restructuring of the UN, the enlargement of NATO and on the other hand, many integration organizations established in Asia should act in a constructive competition and global cooperation and the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of simulations in this sense should be discussed (UN, NATO, QUAD, AUKUS, BLUE DOT NETWORK, D10, T12, CPTPP, RCEP, OTS and others).

The Kovid-19 epidemic, which entered the private and corporate life directly by shaking the world, has drawn a direction to the "security" phenomenon other than its current use since its emergence, and has led to the approach of concepts such as "post-security, post-hegemony" from different frameworks. The trade wars between the USA and China continued to intensify during the pandemic process, and it became questionable whether the USA could maintain its absolute power with China's "Belt and Road" project. The world, which became "bipolar" after World War II and "unipolar" with the disintegration of the USSR, now exhibits the phenomenon of "multipolarity" with the power struggle of more than one state.

The 'Belt and Road' project, also called the Modern Silk Road; instead of a single route like the old Silk Road, it includes roads and routes consisting of many corridors centered in China. It is foreseen that the return on transportation will reach several times the current economic return for the countries of the region in the medium and long term. The 'Belt and Road' project, which is a challenge on its own to the unipolar world apart from its economic return, provides the opportunity for Turkey to improve its relations with the Turkish World and to increase its influence. In addition, China's unstoppable rise and moves to strengthen its army depend on the success of the 'Belt and Road' project.

The important military and economic breakthroughs of Russia and China, when the USA's ideal of "bringing freedom and democracy" to the Middle East and surrounding states, which started in the 2000s, caused both material and power and prestige losses, and the problems with its European allies in the Trump era, It paved the way for the emergence of these two powers rivaling the absolute hegemony of the USA. Despite Russia's intervention in Ukraine in this competitive environment, the fact that the USA did not give direct military support to Ukraine is evaluated as Russia's expectation of weakening and turning its eyes to this region with the Indo-Pacific Strategy Document it published. This situation threatens the states in the Asian continent.

With the unexpected visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, which was seriously affected by the power rivalry between the USA and China, in August 2022, a crisis broke out between the China and the USA. Especially for the Chinese government, which wants to include Taiwan, this situation has been read as a move that crosses the red line and military operations against Taiwan have been applied. While all these tensions indicate an inevitable war in the Taiwan Strait, considering that two-thirds of the world's maritime trade and one-fourth of the world trade uses the Indo-Pacific region, a cross-border crisis is waiting at the door in terms of global security. The USA's inability to bring NATO forces into this region and the fact that there is no cooperation organization already point to a gap that needs to be questioned in terms of regional and global security.

China's taking Russia as an ally in the increasing tension in the Indo-Pacific region, Russia's existence in an ongoing war with Ukraine, USA's involvement in the tensions between China and Taiwan as if to say "I'm in the region" China - Taiwan It removes the strait crisis from being a regional conflict; The alliance between China and Russia, Ukraine's requests to join NATO and the support of the surrounding states give global security signals in the form of a chain that is invisible and affects everywhere it touches. China's surrounding Taiwan with missiles and military exercises shows that Taiwan's dream of independence is covered with dark clouds.

The USA, which wants to turn the tension between China and Taiwan in its favor, uses the conflicts and disagreements between the two countries by taking advantage of this tension in order to hinder the unstoppable rise of China. It implements the containment policy it implemented against Russia during the Cold War years against China in various ways, and tries to realize its influence in the South China Sea by instrumentalizing Taiwan. China's aim to achieve regional security and the security policies it implements against the Western bloc impasse in global equations cannot be considered independent of its expectations against Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam from a historical perspective. Considering all these, the Chinese sea to come to the forefront in ensuring stability and balance of power in the region both in the eyes of the USA and in the context of the realization of China's efforts to open up to the global arena; It is one of the most critical official foreign policy strategies of the Chinese state.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, migration movements from various parts of the world to developed countries affect security theories. At this point, the existence of rising far-right groups and increasing right-wing populism, especially in Europe due to the increase in immigrants, change and affect democratic practices and social security. The activity of the rising far-right parties in Europe indirectly affected the Post-Soviet countries and Turkey and led to the existence of some extremist formations in such regions. Considering all these situations, the rise of the far right and the increasing Islamophobia and xenophobia constitute the main problems of the future world in terms of both security theories and the current political conjuncture.

The EU, which is thought to have developed and high welfare standards, is a center of attraction for third world citizens who dream of being in it and want international protection from the past to the present. Although the EU has made legal agreements with the citizens of these states by carrying out mutual policies and immigration policies, it has established institutions such as EUROSUR, FRONTEX and EURODAC that will control the entrances and exits and will not allow security weakness. However, the fact that the functions of these institutions are not compatible with human rights and that each state in the EU imposes different sanctions on the irregular immigration issue according to its own law has led to debates on both the illegality and functionality of the EU. In this context, the EU puts a tough test on human rights and border security.

Considering the phenomenon of migration from the perspective of Turkey, there are extensive discussions in the literature on the use of Syrians under temporary protection as a trump card in foreign policy. This leads to a re-evaluation of Turkey's post-liberal migration management model. So much so that the open-door policy and liberal rhetoric applied to the refugees who came to Turkey after escaping from the Syrian civil war since 2011 has evolved into a realist foreign policy tool, which has gradually evolved into the threat of "opening the doors" as a trump card against the EU countries. The issue of immigrants-refugees is seen today by many segments of society as both an economic and internal security weakness and a cultural integration problem. As the 2023 elections are approaching, it is seen that the parties that aspire to power have given wide coverage to this issue in their discourses.

Unmanned aerial, land and sea vehicles produced in the defense industry have introduced revolutionary innovations in war technologies. These tools, developed in parallel with artificial intelligence, have revolutionized military reconnaissance applications. In addition, since the day these vehicles were put into use, it is seen that their game-changing qualities in wars and conflicts continue exponentially with the development of artificial intelligence. The role and impact of Turkish UAVs/UCAVs in the 2nd Karabakh War, the Libyan Civil War and the Russia-Ukraine War are the most obvious examples. The budgets for the appropriation allocated to the development of these vehicles increase as they reduce the loss of life in the field and reduce the army expenses, which is a major expense item for the states.

The transition from defensive realism to aggressive realism and the paradigmatic transformation that emerged with the Russia-Ukraine crisis revealed the priorities of the current world in security theories. At this point, the importance of the expenditures made to the defense industry and the share allocated by the countries in the world has been understood once again. In Turkey, the trend and production of ASELSAN in the defense industry in recent years represents a critical point. ASELSAN's exports not only limited to Turkey but also to many regions of the world attract the attention of the world. In particular, Turkey's UAV/UCAV sales to the Ukrainian army, along with the balancing attitude it displayed in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, is a very important example in terms of making sense of the changing defense industry and neorealism understanding.

When the concept of "containment" is examined in the context of international relations, it is seen that the USA was a check and balance mechanism by various lines and institutions against the expansionist policies of the Soviet Union during the Cold War period. Today, it is possible to detect that there is a containment against China, which represents a new pole. The concept of containment has ceased to be only the strategic device of the USA and has begun to be used by China as well. At this point, it is possible to detect that China has followed a more discriminatory path in its post-security strategies, and it has shown these segregation activities not only against states but also against companies. From a general perspective, the current and future relationship of the new containment concept with post-security and the possibility of transitioning to new concepts are very critical.

The new security environment and the post-pandemic world need new concepts of power. At the same time, it is quite remarkable that states lost their monopoly on legitimate use of force with the concept of new war. As the last point of neoliberalism, the decrease in the role of states in various fields and the loss of their monopoly have also changed the approach to security theories. Now the world is in a constantly stuck war environment awaits. The noteworthy point is; The control of refugee camps and the migration crisis are very important in terms of security theories. It is clear that new concepts will bring along a serious security dilemma after the immigration phenomenon.

Modernization has seriously affected security policies and armies, as in many areas. The orientation towards artificial intelligence technologies and the search for new systems in various armies of the world have a critical importance in terms of security theory. In particular, the presence of robotic technologies on the battlefield and the orientation towards artificial intelligence are very critical. It is clear that countries that deal with the dominance of artificial intelligence in security will come to the fore even more in the future. Of course, this situation brings with it many security concerns.

It is clear that artificial intelligence and advanced technology will drastically change the concept of war and security. The world may experience what it has experienced with the atomic bomb in the past, much more severely in the future with nuclear war and the inclusion of artificial intelligence in the war. Because it is clear that these technologies threaten many living spaces in the world and the world itself. Particularly, the concrete entry of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies into the field is decisive here.

It is a known fact that the nature of international relations is "anarchic". “The Theory of International Relations“ tries to put this anarchic operation into a logical framework by taking into account some assumptions in the context of the causes and course of events. In current practices, a possible relationship/conflict is technically handled over a few parameters, and in this way it is tried to create a limited foresight/vision. However, in order for the decisions on the international political scene to be realistic, it is necessary to work with many different factors and data groups in the background. In this sense, especially artificial intelligence studies - as an up-to-date security, analysis and decision support system - offer a new method that can be used. At the Conference, the artificial intelligence strategic analysis and decision support system CEZERİ, developed by Amasya University, was introduced.

Security is not just about external security. Internal security is at least as important as external security and for the policies created within this framework. Asymmetric threats also threaten the international environment, especially with their effects within the country. In this framework, in the understanding of internal security that requires total responsibility, taking precautions against all emerging threats is possible with a flexible, versatile and multidimensional law enforcement structure. The intermestic (internal and external) law enforcement structure's proactive approach to changing risks and threats and the development of education systems suitable for the cultural structure of the country will positively affect the national, regional and international security environment in order to direct the insecurity environment of the future within public security models.

The rise in technology and communication has affected concepts such as power, security, war and defense and brought new generation perspectives. New competitive fields such as cyberspace, food, biology, pharmacology and traditional approaches have left their place to intertwined and related complex models and understandings. In terms of war, the perception of the battlefield and inventory has changed a lot. In addition, fields such as agriculture, food, biology, pharmacology, which are included in the fields of interstate competition, have come to a point where they are evaluated in terms of power and security between countries. The notion of war has deepened with the reflection of the developments in robotics, artificial intelligence, smart technologies, quantum processors, unmanned vehicles, smart missile systems and new generation radar systems to the inventory. Now, in order to reduce deaths in war, we are entering an era in which robot and drone technologies are at the center and smart missiles followed by radar systems supported by unmanned vehicles such as ULV, UAV, UMV are being used. Although “hybrid warfare“ has been used to express the uncertainty in the battlefields and actors, this concept has transitioned to a more complex form with the developments in war technology and areal and actor expansions as a reflection of these developments. Since this complex structure also requires security, it is explained with the concept of "hybrid security", which defines a multidimensional and multi-layered security understanding. This concept defines a complex centralized security capacity that must be built against hybrid threats, capable of responding to threats in different domains.

The expansion of NATO, which started in 1999, to Ukraine and Georgia in 2022 has threatened Russia's perception of national security. Russia invaded Ukraine in order to secure its border, to prevent Ukraine's possible NATO candidacy, and to save its own people from the attacks against the Russian people, who are the majority in the Luhansk and Donetsk region. If Russia is successful in this invasion, it is likely that its next target will be Armenia and Georgia, which "seek NATO and EU membership". In this whole process, Russia's removal from the SWIFT system, its exclusion from the world system with trade embargoes and sanctions, and the prohibition of its citizens from entering some EU countries have the potential to increase Russian expansionism in the future. It is also considered that the exclusion of Russia by Europe and the USA may lead to an increase in political and commercial relations with Turkey.

NATO's efforts to exist in the Post-Soviet arena and in Eurasia have led to the search for new alliance partners in the region. After Russia's intervention in Ukraine, the desire of various countries to take part in the NATO bloc as a precaution against the Russian threat increased, and the demands for inclusion in NATO from both Scandinavia and the Black Sea bloc increased. The participation of Sweden and Finland in NATO and Ukraine's alliance demands are of critical importance in terms of regional equations. It is clear that Russia will be surrounded by the NATO bloc, and this will increase the possibility of a hot conflict in the region. In this respect, both NATO's approach to new candidates and the position of countries such as Poland, whose importance is increasing as strategic allies in the region, within NATO should be considered in terms of making sense of the regional and world security equations.

As a result of Russia's intervention in Ukraine, various areas of crisis and deprivation have emerged in the world. While Russia and Ukraine have a very important share in world exports in various items, their involvement in the war has deeply affected the world and will continue to do so. Especially in products that affect the whole world, such as energy resources, heavy industry items, and grain, the weighted export share of these two countries and the cessation of distribution are a serious danger for the world. At the last point, the importance of the Grain Corridor, which was agreed upon with the efforts of Turkey, has been noticed both in terms of 3rd world countries and advanced world countries. Russia's attitude towards stopping the Grain Corridor is Putin's strongest and last trump card to the Western world. Because the grain crisis is even bigger and more important than the energy crisis. It is clear that in a possible grain deprivation, all the countries of the world will enter a serious crisis from the bottom to the top. When all these warnings are taken into account, it is possible to expect that Russian President Putin will hold his most important trump card, the Grain Corridor.

In terms of both its geostrategic location and the increasing expectations and opportunities after the current Russia-Ukraine crisis, the importance of the Black Sea and its security policies are getting critical day by day. With the increasing polarization, it is clear that the power situation in the Black Sea region in the Eurasian region provides a balance.

The Turkish presence and dominance in the Black Sea, which is one of the most important instruments of the balance in Eurasia, causes Turkey, which plays an important role in the balance of power in the region and approaches the crises as an arbitrator, to assume the role of "provider". Turkey's presence is a guarantee of balance in the context of NATO and Russia's search for power and demand towards the Black Sea. Since there are three NATO members (Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey) and many NATO partner countries in the region, any instability or hostility will directly affect the Alliance. As a result of Russia's intervention in Crimea in 2014, the crisis situation in the Black Sea and the possibility of triggering the conflict with the latest intervention have gradually increased. The only way and key to its decrease is Turkey.

It is clear that global climate change and increasing global warming will bring many dangers to the world. Although the effects of global climate change cannot be fully experienced now; In the future, it will seriously affect nations and international relations politically, economically and socially. When the physical effects are taken into account; It is expected that glaciers melt, sea level rises and coastal losses decrease due to the loss of land used, the spread of new diseases and the sterilization of agricultural production. At this point, it is clear that governments urgently need to take preventive measures on global climate change with joint national and global agreements. It has been determined that global climate change is both a threat to freshwater resources and will negatively affect food security.

Turkey's international supportive attitude towards global climate change and global warming and the environmental protocols it implements are important. Turkey has full agreement and participation in the policies/protocols produced by the UN within the scope of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) since 1972. Particularly, the commitment to combating global climate change with the Kyoto Protocol and its cooperation in accordance with the protocol are very important. The main objectives of the countries that are party to the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21), to which Turkey joined in 2021; to reduce greenhouse gases and global warming, to increase renewable energy production and to help poor countries in their fight against climate change. At this point, it is clear that governments urgently need to take preventive measures on global climate change with joint national and global agreements. It has been determined that global climate change is both a threat to freshwater resources and will negatively affect food security.

The issue of climate change is almost as vital as the issue of national security today. It is obvious that consultations to be made in the context of a globalizing world and acting together will lead to more permanent results, as well as the policy studies of the states in their own internal structures. According to the UN's Global Emissions Gap (2021) report, it has been determined that the efforts of countries to reduce their own emissions independently from each other are not sufficient and they need to work together and review their industrial activities to achieve an effective result. According to the report, it is expected that the global temperature increase will reach 2.7 degrees by the end of this century.

It is quite difficult to comprehend the extent of the consequences of the increase in global temperature. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, this report, published before the 2021 Climate Summit in Scotland, warned of what would happen if countries did not reduce their emissions. Although the increase in the number of countries announcing their net zero carbon targets is promising, the uncertainty of the long-term plans of the richest countries in the world negatively affects this target, which is aimed to be achieved by 2050. In the words of Guterres, the common conclusion reached at the Glasgow Climate Summit is; It is on the way to a possible “climate disaster“.

Although migration movements have taken place for different reasons in the history of humanity, the expected migration due to climate change in the near future and the concept of "climate refugee" arising from this phenomenon is a vital issue for international security. In the studies carried out, concepts such as climate crisis and the accompanying devastation such as drought, food shortage and water insecurity will lead to the deterioration of political and social balance and the existence of various security problems. At this point, it is essential that the climate refugee crisis, which concerns the whole world, is resolved with a governance structure. The climate crisis is a problem for all states and the responsibility of climate refugees is an issue that needs to be examined in international law. Therefore, states should take precautionary measures against the possibility of security, mass migration and conflict. Establishing an effective and efficient regime for climate refugees and the climate crisis; It seems possible when actors such as governments, global NGOs, and transnational companies meet and cooperate on a common ground.

When the negative effects of the situation because of Russia's intervention in Ukraine are examined, it has been determined by various studies that the Eurozone is the most damaged region in the world. The inflationary environment in the euro area, the situation in the euro/dollar parity, the increasing cost of living due to the energy crisis and social chaos are the most critical consequences of the crisis. The Eurozone's heavy damage and its attitude towards Russia in the energy crisis are changing the EU countries both in terms of security and politics. The questioning of the existence and importance of the EU and its inadequacy after the crisis also brought along many questions in terms of the future continuity of the EU. It has been determined that the main steps taken by countries such as France for the alternative enlargement of the EU in the future were insufficient in this period, and due to the crisis environment and the problems within the EU, it gradually lost its power in the region and lost its confidence in the region over time. It is a matter of curiosity how the EU will respond to this crisis environment, how it will overcome social and economic problems within itself and reach a global power potential.

The EU is still the most important economic, social, and political cooperation organization of the region and the world. However, the priorities brought by modernization to the EU have been in vain in the face of a global threat like Russia. It is clear that the atmosphere of complacency caused by the inadequacy of the EU countries in the field of defense and the general state of trust in NATO and the USA in the region brings with it many dangers and unpreparedness. The EU, which has been hit in various fields after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, needs new partners and new solutions to maintain its regional and global claim. When the sharp attitude in the trade environment with Russia in various items is taken into account, it is understood that the EU needs a new supplier and trade partner.

In response to the EU's need for a new supplier and trade partner, a new and serious partnership between Turkey and the EU constitutes the exit map of the EU, both in terms of its strategic location and its role and potential in the Ukraine crisis. With the perspective of Turkey, which has replaced Russia, the EU will not only be able to meet its financial instruments and needs without breaking its ideological position, but also Turkey will become the most important country in the market by assuming the role of a new partner in the region.

As a result of the increasing interest on the basis of countries towards the new security model and security policies that emerged after 2001, it has been determined that the demand for armament has increased worldwide and an arms race has been entered between countries. At this point, depending on the increasing demand for weapons, the budgets of the countries for the defense industry have increased and certain countries in the global arms industry have gained serious momentum in the last 20 years. The regional and global position that Turkey has achieved through its various institutions in the last 30 years is quite critical. It is clear that a natural consequence of the arms race is conflict. The conflict situation that awaits the world does not only mean traditional warfare. The possibility of a nuclear war occurring in the future has also accelerated. It is clear that the tendency towards weapons and nuclear weapons in the near future raises concerns.

With the "Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" that entered into force in 1970, the 5 states in the UN Security Council (USA, France, England, China, Russia) that prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology and encourage the use of nuclear energy in peaceful cooperation are both nuclear powers and it is seen that by signing this agreement, it creates a security dilemma. In 2022, the UN Security Council issued a statement titled "Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races" and underlined the issues outlined in the "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons", emphasizing that since nuclear use will have far-reaching consequences, nuclear weapons will continue for defense purposes if they exist. It was stated that it should serve, deter aggression, and prevent war. However, the existence of India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea in the nuclear arms race and Iran's efforts to be included in this race are indications that the sanction power of the treaty and the declaration is not strong.

Turkey's close relations with the countries within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an understandable and beneficial attitude for periods when relations with NATO and/or the EU are likely to deteriorate. While the relations with the EU could not be improved and stabilized and Turkey's membership was constantly blocked in the past decades, the new far-right trend rising in the continent and Islamophobia is evident, Turkey's opening to different markets will both benefit its economy and be maintained through the SCO, the balance policy that is the center of the Turkish foreign tradition.

The evolution of the unipolar global system, which prevailed after the Cold War, to multipolarity with various rebellions is widely emphasized. The fact that Turkey does not cut off its communication with the East by keeping one foot in the ongoing negotiations with NATO and the EU, while throwing the other foot in a trade cooperation organization that does not offer an alternative to them, has the potential to be turned into an advantage in the right policies. At this point, it should be emphasized that the organization does not seek military cooperation and it should not be forgotten that it is not an alternative to NATO.

Afghanistan is critical for China, a rising global power, and the SCO, the region's largest alliance, also commercially. Afghanistan, which has always had an important geopolitical position, is today a field of struggle between "China or SCO" (in the context of the "Belt and Road" project) and the USA (in the context of preventing China).

Energy security is a matter directly related to the maintenance of international peace and stability. The current conjuncture, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, has revealed the importance of energy deficit and distribution. Energy security is an issue that NATO has also been closely interested in since the Bucharest Summit in 2008. NATO at the Summit; He stated that he can provide support for energy security in fundamental issues such as increasing stability, protecting critical infrastructures, sharing information and intelligence, and developing international and regional cooperation. NATO's increasing emphasis on energy security is closely related to the increase in attacks on energy resources. In the Middle East and North Africa, an average of 350 sabotage actions take place each year against energy infrastructures. The stability of the countries from which energy is imported also plays an important role in energy security.

The stability of the countries where energy is imported is important for energy security. It is known that the EU previously imported 88% of oil and 70% of natural gas from Russia. The Russia-Ukraine War has brought the issue of energy security to the level of a threat to international peace, and it has been confirmed that Russia is not a reliable partner for the EU. The EU has started to look for new suppliers for the energy source. While the supplier countries are in different parts of the world such as Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, an alternative country is Israel, and it wants to supply energy to Europe through Turkey.

Being the focus of connection between Europe and Asia in the energy problem will provide Turkey with new opportunities and possibilities soon. Having 60% of the world's energy resources in the countries around it, Turkey is on the way to become a regional trade center in this context. Russia, which made it difficult for the energy flow to the EU after the Ukraine War, did not impose any sanctions on Turkey, which did not participate in the sanctions against it, and continued its relations. Turkey's participation in the SCO Summit has increased its cooperation with the countries holding the energy. In case of being exposed to possible reactions and sanctions from countries that are uncomfortable with the development of relations with the Eastern bloc, there will be discussions about energy supply routes for Turkey.

Movements towards the transformation of the current energy order are among the most rational options in the context of solving energy security problems. However, this process based on radical changes is not easy at all. Particularly in the medium and long term, some difficulties are likely to be encountered. It is possible to evaluate them under two headings. The first is the possible obstacles that hinder the progress of the process. The other is linked to the emergence of new threats to energy security.

Among the most serious threats to new energy security problems; With the increasing consumption of renewable energy sources, there is the emergence of the need for raw materials. Because, unlike fossil resources, some raw materials have become extremely critical for the increasing consumption of renewable energy resources. In this context, it is possible to state that rare earth elements and critical minerals (with the transition to renewable energy) have become strategic raw materials.

Although the developments in terms of solutions to current crises and environmental impacts are positive, there is a different situation in the context of energy security. It is possible to deal with the emergence of new threats in this context. Experiences related to rare earth elements and critical minerals, which are among the vital elements of energy transformation, are indicators that some threats are beginning to emerge. These materials are likely to threaten energy security in two ways. The first is the problem of access, such as the lack of supply in the face of the increasing demand for materials that are considered rare due to their rarity in nature, while the other is the possibility that such strategically important elements will turn into weapons in the hands of states, based on the experiences of the previous period. It is even claimed that developments in this direction are inevitable. Because, like oil and natural gas, it is quite normal for rare earth elements and critical minerals, which are vital for renewable energy technologies, to turn into strategic resources.

Just as oil has become a weapon in the hands of Arab countries and natural gas in Russia, it is possible to say that the same situation may be valid for China, which is a world monopoly in terms of rare earth elements and critical minerals. Likewise, the data obtained from expert discourses and literature studies indicate that this scenario regarding China can be realized. Although energy transformation is the most rational option in solving energy security problems, it is also evaluated that different threats may be encountered in the new period, such as China's transition to a hegemonic order.

The victory of Azerbaijan in the 2nd Karabakh War and liberating most of its occupied territories changed the geopolitical balances in the region. Russia, which appears to be pro-Armenia in its media stances, warned Armenia about the policies it implemented after Armenia's requests to join NATO and the EU, and stated that they were in fact neutral on this issue. The opening of the Russian-controlled Zangezur Corridor, which Iran and Armenia in the first place oppose the opening of the corridor, means that the Turkish World is directly connected with Anatolia and Europe. It is anticipated that the opening of the corridor will increase Turkey's influence in the region. It is observed that the stagnant relations between Turkey and Israel have begun to revive. The positive steps taken by both sides are critical for the functioning of regional and global balances. It is possible to say that Turkey-Israel relations are of great importance for the security and stability of the Middle East, and that there is a high potential for cooperation between the two countries in various fields, especially in energy, tourism and technology. Mutually reassigned ambassadors, Israeli President Herzog's visit to Turkey, and Israeli airline companies' relaunch of flights to Turkey are all manifestations of the positive situation targeted in relations.

For the event of 9^th Istanbul Security Conference | 2023, in cooperation and consultation with all authorities, it was recommended to discuss the "Strategic Transformation in the Ecosystem", and concordantly to focus on the areas "Climate, Nourishment, Demography, Meritocracy, Economy, Health, Education, Employment, Family-Youth and City Security".

04 November 2022, Istanbul